Commodity Forecast For Last Quarter Of 2008The gold and silver bull is still intact. Commodity Insiders are buying... We use a proprietary method to determine when the insiders are buying and selling. It is extremely accurate. Before we go into which commodities the insiders are buying and which are selling, let me state that sometimes they are a little early. They have huge amounts of cash and if they buy in
the bottom 10% of a move and sell in the top 10%
of a move they make a small fortune. They know
the fundamentals and they know the technicals,
so when their money is on the line, it is good
to take notice and follow there lead.
It was one year ago this week the insiders bought both those currencies and they are repeating themselves 12 months later. Both those currencies had very good runs. However, I don't follow them, but I do follow the metals and they ran right along with them. Here is what happened to gold... August 2007 Gold was at 650 and within 7 months traded to 1033. The second point is that the main trend is still intack...just look at that trend line....Now, for you neophytes, we could trade a little below that line and it wouldn't negate the up trend...so if that happens, I don't want you to come crying to me, asking if the bull is still alive. Gold chart attached...only subscribers get this. The insiders have not shown their hand, but the numbers are released the week after they make their move...however, my guess is they increased buying both gold and silver this last week...we will know next week and pass it on to you. Our ideal turning point for gold is the last week in August with a low in Dec Gold at 751. But there is support starting at Friday's low at 777. We are very close to the bottom of this move down, and it could be in now. Physical buyers can start to buy now. Silver will move up faster than gold, so consider both metals. Reports are coming in that dealers are not selling at these low levels or are doubling or even tripling there margins. Futures buyers should look for a 3 or more day rally and then look to enter on a pull-back to support. --------- So you want to know how silver did when those insiders bought last year...it did even better than gold. Bottoming in August under $12 and running up to Top in March at over $21. Silver chart attached....only subscribers get this.
My original bottom projection for silver was 12.70, which was taken out on Friday last.... it did close at 12.82. However, it is a real possibility that there may be one more round of margin calls that will be an opportunity for the bears to get Dec. Silver down 10.80 As I wrote the above, I went back to my charts and there is at least a 62% change the low will come in right around 10.80 Summary for gold and silver, this washout, which is normal in commoditiy markets....just before they go into full bull mode. Nonetheless, the top is years away...by the way we could go into consolidation mode for another 9 to 12 months. We will be doing more work on the time frame in the weeks to come...so stay tuned. I've heard some talk about how some mysterious force is manipulating the silver and gold market. Usually that sort of talk comes from the mouths of babes. This is the way markets move, go and study past price action and see for yourself...there is nothing new under the sun. Everything, repeats. ----- Before we look at the dollar index. I noticed that some of the fundamental guys...big names...are saying the bull is done for this cycle. That is the trouble if you only do the fundamentals, and you think doing technicals is looking at a 50 week moving average. Yeeks...that is scary. My question...Why didn't they say the up cycle for gold was over at the top...not after gold is down 250 points. I'm anious to see what the headlines in the papers and on the wire services will be...I suspect that they will concur with our fundamental friend I spoke of earlier. At any rate, this is more evidence that the lows are in for gold and silver...or if not in, we are at least within a stones throw of them. Also, on that line of thinking...I remember many people coming up to me when the newspapers were shouting a new era in gold had arrived, everyone is buying....Guess when that was....yep, the middle of March, right at the top. And what where the fundamental guys saying that same week ...its going to the moon. --------- Ok, one more note on Silver and Gold. Buying the physicals is a no brainer right here, especially Silver. And that is in the context of holding a good portion until the bull has finished running, 4 to 6 years. Stay tuned, we are monitoring this on a daily, bases.
EXPERIENCE WINS THE DAY USE OUR 45 YEARS EXPERICENCE TO KNOW THE Next TURNING POINTS In The Market. Free Newsletter Signup http://www.timeyourtrades.com/newsletter.html -------- Dollar Index... Strong rally as gold and silver fall. Resistance is 77.40 to 77.80..so we are right there, this could be the end of the rally. If we should trade to 78.20 then the next level is 79.90 Turning Point is this week, most likely Aug 18-19.
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Trader Jack
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